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tv   Power Lunch  CNBC  September 25, 2009 12:00pm-2:00pm EDT

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program will ask for their money back. action in the meantime, travelers, mcdonald's, leading the dow, sarah lee and starbucks on the s & p 500 and the nasdaq on pace for the best gain since 2003. bob pisani kicks it off at the new york stock exchange. bob? >> a day here where names, mcdonald's, cokes, procter & gamble doing better, industrial names, big interlos angelesal names, caterpillar, united technologies, alcoa weaker today a few groups moving. michelle mentioned the airlines. remember, they have had big capital raiseds recently and very successful ones a big note this morning out, ubs talking about all that, where it might mean and upgraded bottom line they upgraded a couple of big airlines,morning out, ubs talki all that, where it might mean and upgraded bottom line they upgraded a couple of big airlines, qb homes down, did get
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earnings, while they did have a loss not as bad as expected, cautious comments from the economic outlook from the ceo weighing in on that sector. trader talk.cnbc.com, down 1 1/2% on the nasdaq this week. >> not helping, down two-thirds of a percent, techs are weak. rim down 16% or so, the number of upgrades goldman off the conviction buy list and deutsch putting it to a sell. apple weak, google weak, cisco bucking the trend, the plus side. ipo, biggest of the year in the u.s. this year, from shanda games, the chinese company, 12.50. also the largestism po ever in the u.s. for a chinese internet company. as i said, 12.50 where this opened for trading just after 11
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a.m. eastern time, stock's all over the place, right now, down showing 4.5%. sharon epperson at the nynex. >> obama said iran is breaking the rules building a covert nuclear enrichment facility and goldman sachs raising oil demand forecast for the fourth quarter and 2010. yet we are looking at oil prices just up 25 cents or so. any time you have geopolitical tensions a couple of years ago works have been a $10 move higher for oil prices. today, they may account for 10 cents of the move we are seeing now. the dollar playing a bigger role it appears with oil prices today. the dollar's weakness against the euro in splash what traders are paying attention to that seem to be supporting prices despite the weaker stock market. also, keep your eye on what's happening, gold is off of this low because of this weaker dollar. rick santelli in chicago. >> thank you, sharon a saying it all comes out in the wash. today, it all comes out in the
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warsh. if you look a day of twos and tens, what is coming out is the steepness in the yield curve, rates on the two-year yield have jumped. look at the ten-year yield. completely different pattern, of course, catalyst for this trading today, of course, the op ed piece that everybody is talking about. but words versus actions no way to tell at this point. market definitely seems to have taken it under consideration but the way the markets are trading these days are a bit itchy, a friday, close to the end of the quarter, of course, going to move. we need to pay attention to how the curve looks as we get into the next quarter, back to you. >> all right. invest verse some key economic data to digest today and fed chief ben bernanke also speaks, cnbc's steve liesman joins with us details. steve? >> dennis, thank you very much. durable goods the second point for the week along weeks cysting home sales, the economic recovery stalled if you are a
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pessimist, breathe fer you are an optimist. durable goods down 2.4% for august. economists looking for 1% positive, july was revised, still up 4.8% but less than originally been report. here is how we got to that dismal durable numbers, here is are the details. civilian aircraft down 42%. business investment that was down, machinery up, computers down, autos up, economists look more from the rebounding auto sector. the month-to-month, a very volatile sector and unusual to have those big downs during the depths of the recession there and not unusual to have a little oscillation on the way up. i hooked at the 2001 recession, pattern looks familiar two or three up months followed bay an up month, here is the year over of, it has been getting less out bad, minus 18%, minus 20% year over year in the new ordered number, the one the economists watch. the day after the fed announced that two of its crisis lending
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programs be reduced in coming months, fed chairman ben bernanke told the black caucus he needs the term asset backed lending facility that provides low-cost funding for secure advertised consumer for business loans and autos. two days after the fed statement that said the rates would remain low for an extended period and the life of the plan to purchase mortgages, ken warsh warped about the opposite, here is the thing everybody is talking about. what does warsh mean, why does he mean it and why? debating that at 1:00. >> look forward to that very much. stocks continue to head lower, we wind down the third quarter but what about q 4? let's talk about that with our "power lunch" task forces. joining us now is jeff phillips,
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ceo at reimann financial and scott fullman, director at wjw capital group. nice to have you hire. a pretty good september for a number of investors. everybody is kind of cross their fingers that october might follow suit. is that going to be the case or some profit taking ahead? >> significant profit taking. we are expecting a de klain of about 5% in october, unless we see significant improve n top-line revenue numbers, might see okay hold still or goes the other direction, might see it fall more. >> you agree with that? people buying in the case of that? >> seeing the past couple of days a rise in "the call" ratio. last week, we saw the call ratio decline substantially, this week, heading up, also seeing a lot more volume the past day or
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two as well. people are getting a little bit interested in options but also using them to protect a lot of their holdings and portfolios, i think the ultimate thing here is that it tends to be a contrary indicator, "the call" ratio. we are looking at that as a favorable indicator. >> jeff, you are the second person i think in two days that is looking at tips as an asset class right now. so, you're obviously expecting some inflation down the road, huh? >> we still do expect inflation down the road, going to be very difficult for fed to be able to balance their interest rate adjustments they need to do here, need to increase interest rates at some point to combat this. going in their gaver are some of the unemployment numbers but at some point here, we expect that to turn around, most likelier any 2010. >> scott, look at the durable goods orders numbers today, look really bad, down 2.4%, expected to be up 0.4%, but the one silver lining, orders, future orders are up 16% versus the
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previous quarter, might the number might be a momentary pause and get better news coming? >> august tends to be a little bit of a lackluster month, as far as the economy goes. off a lot of people taking vacation. you also have a lot of industries looking at the economy itself in august, trying to see where we are heading for the rest of the year. typically, the retailers, which, you know, they order a a lot of things -- everything from clothing to durable goods and looking at things and saying, you know where are we and what are we expecting for the rest of the year? i think they tack tuque a pause, especially fact that they were looking at the weak back-to-school numbers. >> looking as well as the yen cracking 90 against the dollar. jeff, how much does that worry you, how much does that play into your views about inflation and what you are going to do with your money now? >> with the money right now, we are primarily defensive, at les for the short-term. we expect the end of this year, we will see the market recover a little bit more, growth
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domestically. the dollar has been potentially oversold at this point, we do expect some appreciation in the dollar. so we do look to begin some exposure there, maybe by decreasing exposure on the international side and increasing domestic exposure or the dollar directly. >> gentlemen, thank you so much. have a great weekend. >> thank you. airline stocks generally higher today and analysts at ubs raised his guidance on five of them to a buy recommendation. he says they are improving their balance sheets, averting bankruptcy and lays at the feet for the most part to the fees they have been charging. do you know the airlines raised $3.8 billion in the first half of this year just with those fees that they charge for baggage, for pillows what ever it happens to be? what do you think about the fees airlines are charging now? you got to make money or are they robbing us blind? go to -- don't go to cnbc.com, go to power lunch at cnbc.com, give us your thoughts, many of us have.
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leyland says he hates them because it causes more carry-ones that slow up loading and unloading with bags that don't fit and no overhead space. on the other hand, i believe it was paul who said, no, it was bob, he says if it takes chump change, in other words, extra baggage for your seat, extra for a bark et cetera to give us a healthy airline, then he thinks it's a great idea. and we will have a debate next hour on this. thinks that bob might not be my nor point that. we will see. they have been charging us for them the whole time. >> for a long time. >> now they are explicit. . >> and raising them now. >> oil was up way high this was a way to offset oil, oil plunged, the fees stayed. >> debait continues. also, goldman sachs boosted the oil demand forecast, crude trading in a range lately, are we about to see an oil breakout? live to the g-230 meeting in pittsburgh for the latest headlines on the economy and regulation. plus is global regulation
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good or bad? watch the sparks any on that power grid. >> and get ready for the fast money "halftime report" at 12:45. you are watching "power lunch" on cnbc, first in business worldwide. we are back in two minutes. would you like to go for a ride on that bike ? ok ! ok. whoooa, heyyy ! see, the terms require that you keep the bike within this pre-determined space. if you want to take the bike out, i'm going to have to charge you a penalty. i can't really ride in this little space. you can't ride very far. even kids know an offer shouldn't come ha, ha, ha... with ridiculous conditions. why don't banks ? at ally bank our 9-month no penalty cd gives you a great rate with no fees for early withdrawal. it's just the right thing to do.
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take a look at some of these energy names. both moving higher by 3% after
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goldman sachs the views on refining, upgrading the oil firms and they are getting a boost today. oil for the most part has been stuck in a trading range a few months now, $60, $65, $75 the high, today, the dollar heading lower, three things that should be bullish for the price of oil, dollar lower, against the yen, revelation of the second uranium enrichment plant in iran and goldman boosting demand forecast. in theory, should be pushing oil higher today. why isn't it? what's going on? john kill dove is back with us, seniorville p, energy analyst and a cnbc contributor. bullish down the road but not acting the way you think it would with the bullish indicators out there today. >> that is true, bill, i have to say the fact it is even hanging in there is pretty impressive to me, given that we have had some bearish data hitting us with regularity this week. sentiments seemed to change after the fed announcement in
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terms of what the stimulus is going to be continuing on or not. but also, the inventory report this past wednesday, we saw a real cratering in gasoline demand, well below 9 million barrels a day, the low end of normal and with the back-to-school calendar that number should have been a lot higher, so all of those things come bained, the fact this we are hanging in there tells me that there is some strength to this market and should be going higher. >> john, you would think though with the comments this morning out of iran, basically, a war g warni warning to president obama, think you would see more of a reaction given than what we have seen in the past? >> i do and think we will see the reaction in oil prices to this developing situation. certainly no one think there is going to be any kind of military action in the next hour or tomorrow, but there is certainly a feeling that there's no good outcome ultimately to this
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situation. >> john, in the meantime, when you cite that data that shows we have had a cratering in the demand for gasoline, does that start to put a hole in the theory that the economy is getting better? >> i think it is worrisome, michelle, worrisome. it was unexpected for me. refineries running low rates and able to put up gasoline stores, worrisome, reaction at the pump, you saw pump prizes rise dramatically through the summer, starting to come down now again have to see if that dynamic flips, but, you know, that combined with the durable goods orders this morning it is amazing that crude didn't break 65, head down to 60. i think the iran comment, the weakness all stopped the selloff in its tracks is my point. >> john, demand base circumstance isn't oil kind of overpriced here and yet so long as the u.s. dollar stays weak, is it almost impossible for oil to fall that much? >> the dollar die nam sic key to
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keeping the prices where they are. i'm not so sang win on oil demand. i truly think the china situation is being underestimated by the market. the prices are leading the fundamentals, with china importing a record amount of crude oil in july, another big number in august. we see demand pick up into the winter months, particularly for heating fuel and truck traffic picking up for the holiday season that will be enough to propel us out of this range to the upside. >> remains bullish on oil. thanks, john. >> thanks, guys. when weome back, g-20 leaders in pittsburgh getting ready for what we traditionally call the family photo opportunity so that is coming up in about ten minutes hear, head live, just like a family. >> nobody gets along. infighting. just like the holidays. on the markets, we are down on the trading session so far in the dow jones industrial average but still ahead, when the trader triple comes around, we will get you ready for next week. we are back in two minutes. could someone toss m
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we send you a check for the difference, automatically. as we look ahead to the coming quarter, a lot of people are wondering if the s & p
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financials can continue the performance they put in for this latest quarter, up almost 23%. today, they are down a little bit but then there is some pressure in the market. see how the next quarter goes. bill? leaders of the biggest nations meeting in pittsburgh, as you know, for the g-20 summit, minutes away from the family photo that we mentioned. ahead of that, our chief washington correspondent john harwood joins us from the meetings in pittsburgh. what's the latest, john? >> something new for those leaders to discuss off-mike during that family photo, now they've thank we have the news about the iranian program. we learned from gordon brown and nicolas sarkozy that ahmadinejad of iran wasn't telling everything when he spoke to the u.n. general assembly this week. three leaders this morning put ahmadinejad on notice that the world's gonna push back. >> iran's decision to build yet another nuclear facility without
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notifying the iaea represents a direct challenge to the basic compact be at the center of the nonproliferation regime. >> the question is what is the rest of the world going to do about this? it's a very difficult problem, the bush administration wasn't able to make headway, there was an internal debate led by vice president cheney over the possibility of united states striking militarily against iran. that was rejected as too destabilizing, also the possible that iran might strike first, but president obama's indicated his preference is diplomacy and now diplomacy put to the test because the p-5 permanent men of the u.n. security council plus germany are going to begin negotiations with iran in -- on august -- sorry, october 1st and that is going to be a test of what president barack obama can can deliver in terms of bringing the rest of the world along, including russia, which sent positive signals this week and china, which has not yet. >> while you were speaking, john, the president of russia, medvedev is holding a briefing at the moment yes acknowledges that this is a very serious
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problem the revelation of the second plant. russia has been an ally of iran to this point. is this a turning point, do you sense? >> i think it is progress, now we won't know until the talks are concluded and we get a resolution on the table, see what the language is how tough it is whether russia will go along. certainly theed a minute racial like what is it has got than week, missile defense concession last week by the u.s. business administration to refocus missile defense from a posture that russia thought was threatening to them to one focused on iran and then medvedev came out of the bilateral meeting with president obama, u.n. sanctions may be inevitable, learned at a white house briefing a couple hours ago, senior administration officials that medvedev was told about this facility at the bilateral meeting, did he not tell president hu jintao at
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their bilateral meeting now there is diplomacy to be had there. >> one of the headlines crosses russia, one of the first times they have done this called for an immediate investigation by the iaea, a step further than they have gone before. >> and help the investigation through "any available means as well." . a positive sign, the administration briefers earlier talked about the iaea already having begun their work. one of the questions, now will the iaea investigation slow down the negotiations that are supposed to begin october 1st, the administration said un-unh, go ahead and press them as hard as we can. >> john, just heard obama sound bite which he said they built the plan without notifying the international atomic energy agency. if iran had given notice works that have been allowed, been okay, would it violate some international rule or something? >> would have been subject to inspection buys the
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international atomic energy inspection agency, which is designed to make sure that countries that don't have nuclear weapons respect developing them. under the nuclear nonproliferation treaty, countries, including iran have agreed to that by not notifying, permitting those inspections, they are in violation of that agreement. the u.n. security council ordered iran to make all the nuke cheer facilities arain isable to inspectors, now a new one added to the list and a very aggressive effort to press for the iranians to open up that facility. they want to happen fast, because sometimes, people can go in and clean up those facilities, don't really know what is going on there. >> john, thank you very much. by the way, president ahmadinejad had scheduled a news conference there at 5:00 eastern, he has canceled that and we are going to talk to a "time" magazine editor who spoke with him before that cancellation was announced. we will get some sense of what ahmadinejad thinks of all that next hour here on "power lunch." >> we have that exclusive with the "time."
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last person to talk him-to-him before it canceled. 4:00 eastern time, maria bartiromo has an exclusive interview you with the president of brazil, airing today at closing bell, 4:15 eastern time, only on cnbc. today, g-20 leaders call for more regulation of the financial industry, but is global regulation a good or bad idea in watch the sparks fly on the power grid. is the how longing optimism already fade job 12:45 p.m. attorney time, get ready for the fast money "halftime report." how should you be stepping up heading into the weekend? melissa and the gang will tell you, watching "power lunch" on cnbc, first in business worldwide.
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leaders of the world's biggest 20 countries meeting in pittsburgh. some ared a vo dhagt all countries follow the same set of global regulations. is that a good idea or a bad idea? in today's power grid,
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democratic strategist liz shatter ton versus noel nick ford. you get 30 seconds, i think 20 to state your case. liz, you go first. the clock starts now. >> 20 seconds, i do think this is a good thing, okay in its early conception, everything that needs to be tinkered with, what they are talking about is banks and financial institutions have higher tax reserves a good thing. trying to figure out not to promote high risk taking, a good thing. trying to figure out how get some countries to save more, spend more that is a good thing, okay? i really think in the end this will be a good idea. >> noel why is this a bad idea? >> the question not whether it is a good orred about idea, the question, how is this going to work, 20 different countries 20 different levels of gdp and expected to come to a global regulation agreement with all these hurdles? you cannot expect the united states, a large economic power to compete with other and coordinate with other smaller countries to achieve this level there is no way this thing can work. >> put us at a disadvantage,
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noel? >> absolutely, it puts us at a disadvantage we would be forced to coordinate with smaller countries totally different economic levels. not at all going to work. impossible. >> liz, put the u.s. at a disadvantage a lot of the critics say? >> listen, i think we have to acknowledge that we are part of a global economy. look what just happened, we didn't just meet and we caught a cold, we caught a cold and the world almost died. you have got to be kidding, look at a global economy and market, all interconnected. too easy to sit at a computer and have an instant conversation with somebody any country in the world, all interconnected, have to figure out ways to work together. >> more regulation prevent future crisis, he have somebody doing the same thing? >> why do we need it? because we saw a little bit of profit ability in the banks and -- >> a little bit? really? >> what happened to thes to toxic assets? that affect everyone globally as
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well. >> what about the idea, liz, of competition is actually good thing? we like states to compete, right, states that have the lowest taxes, get the most businesses have the highest rates of employment, same thing around the world as well, everybody has the same regulation, business will start anywhere in the world, can't search for the best place to put their money. >> i don't think any of these regulations are trying to tamper down competition at all. >> yes, they are. >> i disagree. i think they are trying to look at what just happened and how we can fix and tinker with it a little bit so that when america, let's be honest, goes out and puts way too many toxic assets on its books, the rest of the world doesn't crumble around it and we have massive global recession. what we are trying to figure out house, do we tinker around the margins make sure we don't do in the u.s. or any other major producing country like the new ones at the g-20, like china, like russia, do things that bring down the global economy in a way everyone suffer. >> noel why should we tell china
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and india, for example what they should be doing? we want to tell them, oh this he can't do this with pollution, k do that we have already all had our industrial revolution, we want to tell them now, put all these regulations on them and stunt their growth? >> absolutely. like the cap in trade, bad thing, china and india, they don't hop along, on board with us. the deal is this, this is bad, global regulation is bad, bad for the u.s. and it's going to have the opposite effect globally. it is going to hurt markets all over the world. it is going to be bad for the economy, going to be bad for trade and going to be bad for making profits. this thing is bad. and it's clear, anyone with common sense knows this thing is bad. >> i totally disagree. every economist in the country is on the front page "the new york times" today talking about how this is a good idea. >> no, they are not. >> liz, thank you very much. >> thanks. imagine this, they are trying to gather 20 heads of state for a photo on and they are running late.
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>> are you surprised? >> president obama -- >> nah, nah. >> 19 others. >> it is lula. >> wondering if the housing recovery is already losing steam. diana olick will break out some of the latest home sales figures coming up. when it comes to the market what exactly is the new normal and what does it mean for you plus get ready for the trader triple play, set you up to trade next week. you are watching cnbc and we are first in business worldwide. a! a@ú a ♪ yes, you're lovely... ♪ what do you think? hey, why don't we use our points from chase sapphire and take a break? we can't. sure, we can. the points don't expire... ♪ there is nothing for me... ♪ there's no travel restrictions... we could leave tomorrow. we can't use them for a vacation. you can use the points for just about anything. i know... ♪ the way you look tonight ♪ chase what matters. get your new chase sapphire card at chase.com/sapphire.
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> welcome back to "power lunch." i'm darren raffle. it was called the biggest case in the history of sports, a couple of weeks arc the nfl won a case, it was a summary judgment in the u.s. court of appeals for the 7th circuit. it basically gave the nfl the right to be anti- -- antitrust to not operate under the sherman antitrust act this would
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basically grant the nfl an anti-trust exemption, it went to the supreme court and the ftc has just filed the amicus brief, to go along with the department of justice, the case is called american needle versus the national football league. and they are saying they are hoping that the supreme court vacates the judgment, flips it around so that the nfl is not granted this anti-trust exemption. baseball, of course, has an antitrust exemption but the envelope does not. they only have it for the sports broadcasting act of 1961, which allows the envelope in to operate, just for the broadcasting under the antitrust exemption. dennis, back to you. >> thanks very much, darren gentleman. despite a record drop in prices, new home sales flaet flapping out, after four months of strong gains. cnbc's diana olick joins us from washington with more. >>. diana? >> new home sales held on better than existing homes in august, basically flat, up .7 of a percent. this report is based on contracts signed, not closings,
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but if you look over three months, sales up 7% from june a good trend. bet certificate inventory number. the supply of new homes fell 3% to 262,000,est homes on the market in 17 years and represents a 7.3--month supply. inventory down the past year. how much is did the first-time home buyer tax credit play in the numbers? >> we believe that the tack credit has played positive part in the market but not the defining part. we believe that since march, the consumer has become a built more confident and that is on a consistent month to month basis. >> kb home was upgraded last week, moving positive on the sector, kb came in, earnings up 6 %, above analyst expectations, big sign of de manned, revenue down 33%. stock up 26% this year. now, one thing to know when we
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talk about the importance of today's numbers, new construction makes up barely 7% of all homes for sale. keep that in mind. more go to the blog, realty check.cnbc.com. your e-mail on your thoughts on airline fees, that they raked in $378 billion the past year, improving the bottom lines, good idea, bad idea? mike says although it is not something anyone likes if it's gonna keep the planes in the air, $15 at a tame, it's a good idea. bad idea says ray, he is not in favor of nickel and diming the airlines, just raise the ticket price and level the playing field. thank you, show you more of these next hour. we will be back at the top of the hour after the fast money "halftime report." see you in a bit. why is dick butkus here? i hired him to speak. a lot of fortune 500 companies use him. but-- i'm your only employee. we're gonna start using fedex to ship globally-- that means billions of potential customers. we're gonna be huge. good morning! you know business is a lot like football...
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welcome to the thanks money "halftime report." disappointing reports on home sales, durable goods on the rise and consumer sentiment. any opportunities in today's down pace? the fast money crew today, steve grasso, jj kin han, bill of bell curve trading and scott of nation shares and options trader. start off with the story at the moment, gays, the trend that we are seeing, financials specifically in shares of goldman sachs, look at the shart here, just off the session,
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still off by 2.5%. what are your thoughts? >> pay more in compensation in the way of stocks, only thing, diluted to the stocks shares, to the share price. >> bill what do you see in terms of the charts for goldman sachs, recently had a new 352-week interday high, i think two days ago. maybe this is simply a reason to take some profits here? >> we look at the sector as a whole, the kln, a good thing for this area, looks like there is upside here, wouldn't throw the towel in at this point. get below 14 in the xlf, but i think you have upside. >> what are you seeing in the put buying in the xlf. seen that a couple weeks ago what is it recently? >> seen put buying in the xlf, seen -- >> scott, sorry, scott -- i'm sorry to interrupt, going to take a live look at this picture
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of the g-20 leaders, taking a group photo out there in pittsburgh, this is what they do at the conclusion of every year, they take this group photo where all of them appear, like the eighth grade class photo, just wanted it alert our viewers to that because that is happening at that important meeting. scott, i'm sorry, go ahead, talk about the put buying in terms of the xlf? >> in a number of indexes, that has been the theme and the option world this week, seen quite a bit of protective put action. wednesday, saw a big buyer, q puts, 2010, after the money puts, that has been the theme of the week as far as the option world is concerned. >> okay, let's move on and talk about the markets as a whole. jj, what are you seeing in terms of broke techtive buying on the s & p 3500s? seem to be at a market pause right now, first couple of sessions, price action indicates that investors are taking a pause after this huge run-up we have seen since march lows.
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>> sure will, melissa, up today above 26, the vix, people paying more for options, for protection what scott was saying, talking about yesterday xlf, aggressive put buyers, people paying more before the end of the quarter. >> next trade a big mover in today's session, that is shares of rim weighing on the nasdaq today, falls 15%, disappointing quarter last night, a number of disapop thements when it comes to new subscribers, average selling price what could the blackberry maker's mean in term of technology, outperformed last year? last night, we had that bandied about, it would take the sails out of the other trade. >> i don't think the trade is over and not taken the wind out of the trade yet. >> the options market, often is,
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of the an crystal ball, what to expect from a company when it does report for earnings, how does it back up this time around and seeing any sort of positioning surrounding palm or apple the derivative play off the rim news also night? >> palm and apple are down but nowhere down as much as rim is. they are more diversified. so, volatility a little bit higher in the two names you mentioned, palm and apple, higher, protective buying but you know, last week, we had people who put, drove a stake in the sand, saying this is my option position for these two names and i'm willing to get long using options, either of the names comes down a little bit. we see protective put buying in those names but not as much rim. >> the impact on rim on the nasdaq overall, down by a percent now. head to the turn of the day, in fact, bill looking at the nasdaq 100, what do you see in the direction? this was the index, index
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that had crossed pre-lehman? >> if you look at where the nasdaq 100 has come back to, not only is that the objective low, but it is also kind of going back to the scene of the crime where the index fell apart in the fall of '08. i am watching this as an indicator for the market as a whole. the strongest part of the market got back to a key resistance area will tell us if the whole market is beginning to put in some kind of a top. >> oil rolling over. about $66 a barrel. goldman also, by the way, raising its outlook for a number of oil stocks. gold continuing to fall following yesterday's $15
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decline. a lot of commodity action that we are watching. p pick your poison there. >> in oil we have talked a lot about it recently. it is range bound. i think we will bounce around for most of the fall. i don't think there is any strong premise unless the dollar hits a strong move one way or the other. >> gold is below for the second day in a row. are you seeing a big come in for these stocks? >> i am still seeing the buying of these stocks. any type of dip you see in this sector, you watch the people, the institutions come in and they buy them up. i think we will go higher next week. >> let's bring in our guest on the fasline today. that would be dr. jay. credit card names getting slammed.
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could this mean lower profits? john j., what's your premise here? >> an awful lot of put activity in these names and at critical levels for visa. the 50 day moving average got pierced. it bounced back above that at 6955. it bounced back above these again. it is trading huge amounts of puts. so, even though legislation might take a while to get out, the fact that they are chattering about it has people nervous. if 70 and or 69.5 doesn't hold, look for the next level to be right down there for the stock. they are up 240% on the day. >> dr. j what has been the trade
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you put on today? >> a put spread where we -- believing that perhaps the stock continues to the downside, if it does not, if visa bounces at all i would rather not be naked exposed. that's why i am buying a put spread. >> nice to talk to you. have a great weekend. >> thank you very much. >> time now for the fast and furious. >> casino names. i could be wrong. if i didn't want them when they were half the value, i definitely don't want to buy them. >> are you getting in? >> yes. i would put on a bullish trade. i always like to do the buy and
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risk. it will continue up to a 52-week high. gold is your time to get in. >> i will stay with melissa. we are long at 988, 980. >> one of these is a bottom feeder. if you have to buy one of these five, buy american airlines. >> we listen to the red hot ipo market. what will benefit. we have got your trade. coming up neck, the perilous. is a brisk fall correction on the horizon? and video game wars are back on. prices flashed. big block buster fall hits.
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welcome back to the fast money halftime report. call the close, going 4:00 p.m. eastern time. >> i am a buyer. i think that the futures at the 1046 even level. >> it's a range for the next couple of day. you sell 050, buy 1020, 1010. >> buy or sell? >> no good news so i am selling. >> i buy today. >> that does it for us here at the halftime show. we head to the charts and see if something can signal a bigger correction ahead. looking at the new normal for the markets and see what else you guys are watching.
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>> we have a terrific show coming up. former white house economic policy director joins us as a special guest. find out where he stands on the market. the g-20 out with a statement and a lot more. is senior editor with time magazine. his exclusive interview with ahmadinejad. and then the airlines raking in billions in extra fees that they are charging you. is this a good thing or a bad thing for business. the house passed a spending bill. the senate must pass the bill by next thursday. the fda is revising prescription information to include information about a number of patients experiencing acute
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panceatitus. and now ipo, shand is trading lower. a little different look today while they repaint our home. the living room is being done so far today. welcome to the second hour of power lunch. ahmadinejad has slated a news conference for later this hour in response to president obama warning him to disclose his country's nuclear activities. we will hear about an exclusive interview earlier today with ahmadinejad. >> stocks moving lower in the midst of mixed economic data. the 30-year bond has risen a full point. what is the new normal. >> airlines are getting a boost from an upgrade and pulling in
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billions of dollars from extra fees that they charge passengers. we will debate whether those fees are justified. >> join us for the next half hour. managing director of two oceans fund and former economic director. a businessman and a witty guy. >> can he hear us? boy he looks good. but he can't hear us. can you hear us now, todd? >> okay. we will move on. >> let's move on. general motors pulling out all the stops to get customers to buy its cars challenging them to compare vehicles to competitor models. we spoke earlier today with gm vice chairman and he has more on that interview. >> nearly two weeks into this program, general motors is pleased with what it is seeing in terms of generating interest. not necessarily big sales but we
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are in a down month. >> we never did want to look at this program as immediately driving sales. however when you look at consideration, whether it is edmunds.com or more, many will tell you that consideration for gm is up very sharply. >> what are they seeing at edmunds. cadillac, chevy and gmc, the percentage of people checking out the vehicles is up, slightly down at buick. but overall consideration is up 14 to 17% for general motors in terms of people checking thicks out on the internet. the ones where they are most competitive they are seeing the most interested.
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he predicts that fewer than 1% of those who take advantage of the program will come back and ask for their money back. he is confident it will be less than 1%. check out the blog, behind the wheel.cnbc.com. today in detroit, the ceo of chrysler is meeting with the full chrysler board. he is going over his turn around plan. this is video we shot with him a couple of weeks back. machineionne is going over plans. the riceler board will brief on a plan. the federal government wants to know what gm and chrysler has planned so that the investment
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that the government made is money well spent. >> i know you said the auto show had a lot of optimism but you have a company like general motors that is outlining this very aggressive sales tactic, 60-day money back guarantee. there is a lot of fingers crossed right now? >> absolutely. they do believe that sales will be gradually increasing starting late this year early next year. but at the same time september is a wash. obl october will be week. they hope to see the traction at some point. >> i was interested in the ads, they used the outsider, the tall texan. >> i think they realized that people want somebody to say this is a fresh start at this company.
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while he is not lee, you have to admit that ed whittaker has a plain speaking way. it is at least drawing interest. >> thanks. see you later. >> an awful lot of news for economists to sort through. we have the g-20 meeting, economic data, an oped. let's bring in steve and todd. you can hear us now. we are thrilled to have you. >> i can't wait to catch up. >> let's start with that. there are a number of things to talk about. i was fascinated when i saw the oped in the journal today which seemed to change what per happens the fed is thinking of doing in the near term. how did you interpret his comments? >> i was happy to see it because i am getting very concerned that there is nobody in washington that gives a darn about what
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happens to the u.s. dollar. the u.s. dollar is on the weak side. that is great for now. but there is a narrow gap between being weak and helping the economy and being so weak that it becomes a crisis. to me, kevin's column was a warning that we are watching things, watching the economy. we will not overstay our welcome. that is what helped us get into the mess. >> i got a sense he was talking about maybe a different way for the feds to look at the economy and inflation and maybe start looking at different assets besides just the cpi. >> mr. liessman? >> that has been an emerging theme, michelle. asset prices need to be part of monetary policy and some of the financial markets, you could read this as him saying maybe gold has signals for the fed in there. i was struck by how contradictory what was said.
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if you go back and look at what the statement said, they said they will keep rates low for an extended period. >> and there were no dissents. >> no. and they would smooth the transition by extended the period of purchasing mortgage backed security. and then the headline was fed to act sooner. there is the fed saying gradual right there. and look at the headline on market watch, fed to act sooner, faster, and rougher was the other line. that is how the market is taking the comment which contradicts the key statements. >> steve, isn't that statement almost better? the more the fed focuses on trying to withdraw, the better it can be in the long term? >> they are trying in a difficult way to split the two decisions between what goes on in terms of their balance sheet and what goes on in terms of interest rates.
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clearly the statement makes it quite clear. interest rates aren't going to change for a long period of time. the easing aspect has to be dealt with as well and they have to deal with that separately. they are trying to divide the two concepts. >> this is not even remotely clear, especially if you take the fact that the statement talks about a gradual transition. >> i think you are getting to the point where this is the problem we have been having with communicating things all the way through in here. we are just continuing that problem of missed statements that drive people to the wrong conclusion. >> you know the politics involved in all of this. this is as much a political issue as it is an economic issue. they have to be very careful. the timing and methods used to unwind liquidity out there. >> that's true. at the same time, the fed and no central bank ever wants to be seen as simply and only a flock of doves. it helps them to look as if they
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have got some hawkish side. they look at it as a flock of doves and the market comes at them like pi gins. >> they need to change the language. they do not need to say they are gradual. everything they said is that things would be gradual not faster. >> is this some kind of back handed job owning, make it look like there is maybe dissent? i got to assume that if it is printed in the paper, it will make the point that you just said. >> i think it is a bit of a trial balloon. it is true that kevin doesn't go out and publish an oped without ben bernanke first reading it. i think the fed wants it to be known that they are looking towards the future and they recognize that the world will have to get used to tighter monitoring. >> you just put your finger on
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the dilemma right here. if kevin warsh knows that the fed needs to be stronger and faster then why isn't the fed today taking additional actions for what it knows it must do? is it not time yet? they are repeating history in the opinion of some when it comes to greenspan. >> the equity market was coming back this past spring but then that led interest rates higher and the 10-year note was hitting 4% and that was beginning to short circuit recovery. >> all these other government agencies are involved in all of this and if they start to sense the fed is starting to think about changing policy they need to act accordingly as well, right? steve? >> yes, absolutely. i want to know if you have one language that drives rates lower by saying extended period, what is the exact purpose of this
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today? i say that it probably came out with ben bernanke's approval on it. >> thank you so much. >> we will take a break here. the stock market a little lower today. we will take the realtime pulse in just a moment. plus iran's president set to hold a news conference just minutes from now, responding to president obama's warning to disclose nuclear activity. and here is what else is on the menu. it is a bull market somewhere even in a drought. in a bit, business is flushed with opportunity in dry california. [ engine powers down ] gentlemen, you booked your hotels on orbitz. well, the price went down, so you're all getting a check thanks. for the difference. except for you -- you didn't book with orbitz, so you're not getting a check. well, i think we've all learned a valuable lesson today.
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the overall markets may be down but biotechnology is down. all right. weak day, weak week but september has been great so far. all these details on a friday. >> we are at the low of the day. this is kind of disappointing three days in a row. but we had disappointing news from rimm. let me show you a group that has been under a little pressure this week really in the last week and a half and that is some of the key parts of the transportation sector. fedex probably down 7 or 8%.
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industrials are also a bit on the weak side. i wouldn't say they are rolling over but some weakness and some of the big names. united technologies is a parent company. general electric a tad on the weak side. as you can see there, some of the big airlines. this is what the interesting thing, the other side is we are seeing real moves up in the airlines. we have had some successful capital races. that has been rolling over all throughout the day here. there is our parent company, general electric which was at $17 just a short while ago. trader talk. oil is down about 9%. >> bob, when i started covering oil, if there was any talk about some covert nuclear plant, that would have sent oil prices up $10 in a minute. right now we are looking at
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prices down about 10 cents or so. we are waiting for ahmadinejad to make a statement in new york, to make a press briefing. he said there was no secrecy involved but president obama has accused iran of building a nuclear plant. none of that really has been very bullish for oil prices. what's going on with oil right now has a lot to do with the dollar and where the dollar is is more of an indicator of where oil prices are than any politics or the demand picture. >> great. iran's president ahmadinejad is set to hold a briefing with journalists in about 15 minutes from now. time magazine's journalist spoke with him at the moment that president obama was demanding
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greater account blgt. first on cnbc, bobby joins us now. what is the headline? >> he was aggressive and defensive when it came to this revelation of a new plan. we don't have to tell the americans and the obama administration about every facility we have. he said we have told them what was necessary. he was quite nondescript. i don't think he was fully expecting president obama to make that statement today. he seemed a little taken aback by our questioning. that may explain why they cancelled a press conference that was scheduled for later today. >> how do you think he will react to the fact that normally countries like russia or china which would refrain from saying anything would come out against the situation?
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>> i think he will probably respond to that but he knows that both russia and china are still -- if you could call it that, on the iranian camp when it comes to sanctions. they are not keen on adding new sanctions. >> you would not view russia's call for an immediate investigation as a softening on their part? >> it is certainly a coffining but i don't think that it automatically means that russia will withdraw its objections. >> give us a sense of the man himself. he has been in the past very defiant of the international community. those that opposed him, at least. but he was embarrassed during the presidential election and the most recent protests that were in the streets in and around teheran against the advice of the military and clergy in that country. has he been chastened to any degree? >> he is not as pugnacious as he
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used to be but he did seem completely confident of himself. he dismissed all of the questions we had about the election process. he gave the impression of a man who is completely in power and in command of himself and his surroundings. i don't think he fears being dislodged or toppled any time soon. he talked about the future. he talked about the rest of his second term. he talked about ending his second term and there after going back to university and teaching. >> this is a big time for the obama administration? >> it is a big test and president obama obviously sounding very strong today. but the question is what can he get done? and how strongly does he feel? there is legislation before congress to put sanctions on iran now. if he is going wait around for permission that will not look all that strong. as for the show we see in new
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york, it is lewd chris. israel said have you no shame. gadhafi, libya is part of the security council? you might as well put dracula in front of the red cross. these are the sort of people we are dealing with. >> does obama have an opening here he might be able to take advantage of if he has the likes of russia who are starting to question the strategy of iran on nuclear energy? >> does he have the opening? sure. how much is russia going to do. president obama last week basically changed the missile plan which was a nice -- it was something for russia and russia said thank you very much. i am not sure there is much. there would be not even a bottle
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of vot dka. airline stocks have been higher after a buyer recommendation was issued on five of the airlines. they made $3.8 billion in revenue as an industry just from the fees the first half of this year compared to 2.3 billion last year. let's revisit this e-mail. he says if it takes chump change to give us a healthy airline. that struck a nerve with many of you and you responded in kind. for example, michael said chump change? try traveling with a family of four on a two-week vacation. and you have ron saying the purpose of the fees is to make chumps of the american people by making it difficult or impossible to know how much a flight is actually going cost. we will debate this issue a little later this hour.
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>> another year and another drought in california. some people are still making money from that state's water crisis. who is finding opportunities in the drought and how they are doing it. >> here is a look at a year to date chart of coca-cola. up 17% year-to-date. today up another 1 .25%. an exclusive interview with c e coca-co coca-cola's chairman and ceo. please help me welcome a long-time friend of glencoe baseball. a man who played second base here some 45 years ago. actually, 47. ladies and gentlemen, mr. larry mccarthy. amidst today's financial turmoil, our sophisticated wealth transfer strategies... and philanthropic expertise ensure your legacy...
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two year yields up an additional percent. suggesting that the fed could
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move aggressively sooner rather than later when it comes to rates. the additional comments seems to have pushed it up above 1%. we see it at .99. they have been selling the two year, flattening the 30. does that mean some people may believe a double dip or a weakening economy? >> very carefully. california's draught is in its third year. just another headache for the golden state but for some it is turning out to be very lucrative. we made our way to california and she is there to tell us the story right now. jane? >> not far from a fire, bill. and you know, this green lawn behind me is deceiving. water is so precious that in what may be a first, the local water agency is going auction is stuff off to the highest bidder.
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>> i am just going cut your grass a little bit. that business is cloe. now, he has two much work painting lawns for occupied houses. now barred by water companies for watering the grass enough to keep it green. >> i just wish i could find more people to help me. i have a great opportunity for people to participate in this business. >> well, some are getting rid of the real stuff all together. it's california. we love fake. revenues are up 25% in his fake turf business. >> the reason why it is expensive is because it is low maintenance and no watering and you will get your money back within five years. >> and you don't have to pay the gardener any more. when i was at the wynd, they
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have fake grass. i think there are new laws. >> back to you. >> i am going out to paint the law. >> how much does it cost to get your lawn painted? >> about $275. the interesting thing about it, this home they were going be fined by the water agency if they watered it enough to keep it green. nine e fined by the homeowner's association for letting it go brown. >> should we make fun of them or marvel at the ingenuity. >> it is hard to tell fake from real in california. >> in a state where you got breast implants and pec implants, this is the next big thing. why does it have to be green? >> the homeowner's association
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would fine you more for pink grass. >> if you believe in global warming and the tides are rising we will get enough water in california. it will be salty and we will have to eat seaweed ask that goes over well in asia. let the waters rise. >> thank you very much. see you later. >> todd, thank you for joining us today. >> remember? >> uh-huh. >> put all the nuts over there. >> i am from there. i can say this. the cereal state. the land of fruits, nuts, and flakes. i can say that. >> what to look for in the markets next week. and we will keep you up to date on the markets. we are seeing interesting moves in the treasury market today. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 i want everything right where i can find it. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 anything that makes trading easier.
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as we wait for iran's president to make his comments, he is holding a news conference in just a few moments, crude oil is down on the trading session by 13 cents to $65.76.
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earlier we talked about an oped piece. one of the comments he has now made in a speech has triggered a move in the two-year note. the -- the headline that is getting the most attention is his warning that an unanticipated and excessive surge in lending the possible as the u.s. economy starts to recover. that seems to be triggering some of the move to push the yield in the two-year note to the 1% level and they are buying the 30 year on the back of that as well. what can we expect next week given what we have heard? joining us now from the nyse, a and. >> what is now across the yield curve, specifically the 230 spread that we are watching now and the comments.
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>> a lot of the activity and chatter today has been based on the oped piece. it is almost reminiscent of when greenspan said he needed to pull the punch bowl away before the party got started. so as a result we are seeing the yield curve flatten. also announced a new bond contract. >> i think the stock market -- we saw a nice rehearsal on wednesday from being up 90 to down 80.
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i think the fed market is leary about any policy changes and they will probably react on the sell side more than the buy side. >> joining us is randy. why isn't oil skyrocketing today? the dollar is lower. you have the ahmadinejad controversy going on today. oil is just sitting there. >> i think today is a friday. we are seeing maybe short covering. getting back to the $65 area which was a previous low two months ago. >> the refineries would be bullish? >> it is down right now. >> we touched the $65 level. short covering going on earlier in the day where we popped from the 6 5 back to the 62. the economic data is not good. refinery margins are not good. and economics are coming into play working to the downside.
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>> one would think that, you know, with the crude oil market doing what it was doing and the movement in treasuries that the stock market might be able to gain a little more traction. what are they watching? what do they want to see happen on the close? >> i think they are bumping up on psychological levels. these are important numbers. even for investors. i think people are really worried about the dollar. it is very short right now. commodities are long. it is an easy trade. >> there is talk and the weak dollar could ignite some inflation. we haven't seen that in the economic numbers. i think inflation still remains subdued and there is continued concern that if the dollar falls further that that might ignite
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inflation. >> and the movement in the 30-year would suggest they are still not worried about it. >> do you think sit a one-day wonder? >> i don't think so. in the long end there is demand for duration. the ten-year could go to about 305. that would put you in about 120 in future space. >> i am sorry. one guy said the only other currency the dollar is doing is the british pound. why is the british pound so weak? >> there is a lot of concern that it is not just the european union but the british that are also weak as well as us. so the two of us may come out of this recession a little slower than the rest of say, for example, japan or the rest of the european union and that is why you are seeing the pound and the dollar sell off. >> is it too early to watch the flattening of the yield curve to be worried that it is signalling
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the beginning of a double dip. >> we continue to see damage. you tend to see better data like we saw today in confidence. whether we get a double dip, it is probably still early to say. the governors and chairman say they feel better. people will want to see the data confirm that. >> thank you. have a great weekend. >> time for our daily look at the most widely followed look. allen joins us with what's clicking. >> how are you doing? we got serious doom and gloom on the website today. yesterday jewelian was on the air. he said it could be armageddon if asia stops buying. we have a write up of that interview. plus other guests are reiterating. people are diving into it and it got posted on the drudge report. if you want to cheer up, go up
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to the slide show of the hottest toys expected for the upcoming christmas season. they list the 15 toys they think will fly off the shelves and so we have a slide show up of that. there are some toys there that i have never heard of. finally for a little friday fun. >> the hamp sters are f-- hamst. >> and check out our slide show on the most beautiful farraris. >> that is redundant. >> if you are at work on a friday, check out the slide show. >> we are heading there now. >> and then sigh deeply. >> take care. >> and a scathing attack on michael moore's new mfilm.
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>> do not miss that show. >> and next up, airlines raking in billions from the extra fees that you pay to fly. are they justified, these fees? we will bring you both sides and e-mail us with your comments on that, on airline fees and service. ubs upgrading five airlines to buy. saying it will leave the carriers flush with new cash. >> and they are all higher on an otherwise down day. have some fun with that truck. vroom... vroom.
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we will talk about this ubs analyst who upgraded five airlines in part of the fees they have been charging. those fees are encouraging him that they are improving their balance sheet, averting bankruptcy. what do you think of these fees? good idea bad idea? i have dave who sent us an e-mail. this is for you, dennis. dave says the $150 fees for changing a reservation are outlandish. i do all the work, making the change online and many times i pay a higher fare and then they charge $150 fee. no value added. >> i totally agree. >> and then there is michael. that would be dennis. fuel usage is directly related
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to the weight and passengers should have to pay for the weight they bring on board. he is in favor of fees -- >> for the baggage. >> and a pricing system for michael moore and other people based on weight. >> want to bring analysts in? >> let's bring in the president and ceo of the american consumer council. a group with 89,000 members. these fees that they impose, great idea with oil at 70s? >> still needed. >> we might have saved money and we are saving money on fuel now but the economy where it is, we are just as much in the soup as we were a year ago. >> but don't higher fees make fewer people travel?
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>> well, sure, but let's remember one thing. we are talking about the same airline industry that first of all keeps passengers waiting on the tarmac for six hours. secondly they charge you for the baggage and then they lose your bags or worse they treat them like a basketball. so the airlines don't have much cr credibility when it comes to consumers and the traveling public. >> you want to defend your industry, bob? them's fighting words. >> i guess they are. there are situations where things don't happen the way you would like them to work. the industry has a lot of people who are trying to make things work. as i have said before, an airline business is not like the chemical business. >> but flying has become a very difficult thing for a lot of people to do. a lot of times people have a
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very unpleasant experience. shouldn't the industry be perhaps going the other way making people feel more welcome and appealing for them to fly than adding all of these extra fees and making it more expensive and less enjoyable to fly? >> i think so. i think consumers want to see customer service restored to the airline industry. consumers are not opposed to paying a fair price for an airline ticket. but these fees that bob is talking about are deceptive. and the reason they are deceptive is you buy a ticket, you go online you buy a ticket. let cea let's say i am flaying from san diego to new york. by the time i get to the airport, suddenly i am paying $25 for a bag, paying for a better seat so i don't have to be squished between two sumo
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wrestlers. >> i am a complete advocate for people paying for what they get. i watched people bringing on all of this baggage. i think people should have been charged for bags a long time ago. but they are very deceptive in the way they give you the information. a lot of times you don't find out about the overweight fees until you are standing at the counter. >> i don't doubt there is a better way to inform people. but by separating fees from the rest of the ticket it allows some people who can get on a plane for a lesser price who maybe wouldn't be able to afford it or decide other wise. it is one of the things you have got try to do. you got to get as many people out there as you can. not everybody will pay the higher fare that you have if you will lump all the fees together.
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>> why not do what southwest aerial airlines does. they charge you a ticket price and they don't charge you for bags. why not? >> i am now subsidizing every single person who wants to bring baggage. >> and their load factor is a little higher than other airlines. >> they are not making money, either. >> god point. >> oh, by the way, men, thank you very much for joining us. tonight on cnbc in a show called "put it on the map" we will look at all-american brands and the cities and towns they grew up in. like louisville sluggers made from slabs of wood called billets. >> danny turns billets into major league bats.
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high-tech machinery ensures the pros get what they want. the executive director explains. >> this is where all of the probats are made. about 2,000 different probat models are programmed into the hard drive of this machine and any difference between the specification for the bat and the actual bat produce will be less than the thickness of a piece of paper. >> it was not always done this precisely or this fast. we see what is involved in doing it the old fashioned way. an art form, constantly comparing the ever chinging billet. no matter how they are made, most get their pedigree, burned granding with the oh value. watch nbc's put it on the map
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right here on cnbc. >> i am so glad that aluminum bats did not catch on in a big way. >> any of all the aluminum trees you saved. >> join dennis. when it comes s ts to the mark what is the new normal. we will talk about this magazine's cover story. the yield curve is flattening today but the dow is steady. back after this. ♪ so blessed with inspiration ♪ ♪ i don't know much ♪ but i know i love you ♪ and that may be ♪ all i need ♪ to know (announcer) customers love ge aircraft engines almost as much as we love making them. innovation today for america's tomorrow.
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in a long line of amazing performance machines. this is the new e-coupe. this is mercedes-benz.
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investing gauges are broken. signals are mixed and money managers don't know where to turn. some of them, anyway. so what exactly is the new normal? we spoke to several leading market seers looking for the market's true north and what it means for you the investor. >> how are you? >> just ducky. >> where have we heard the new
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normal. >> i started with the question what is normal, period. what exactly is normal. i probably get accosted a lot and people ask me, gosh, this great recession is terrible. i don't remember anything like it. when will things get back to normal. i am asking that with respect to the stock market. >> what was your basic conclusion. >> my gut tells me this is not the first time or the 30th time in the history of the stock market that sophisticated investors have asked this question. it has always felt very different. you and bill, there is great video of you guys covering the crash for the financial news channel. the theorys we always talk about, the people -- history is not necessarily a one for one
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analog. we always seem to look back at things with the benefit of maybe ten or 15 years hindsight and say that is how things worked out. >> the new normal embedded in that is the idea that it is different this time. and every time i hear it is different, i think of all the other times that it was supposedly different and it wasn't. >> the one thing that is different is what i call the great divide. i have never seen anything so widely split. >> that's the whole foil. >> you had john who was convinced we were going see 10,000 by 2,000 and funny people who were taking money out of the bank and putting it under mattresses. >> maybe it was a bigger split. >> i have never seen it so
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polarized. you have followed the market for sometime. how do the camps reconcile their arguments with what we have just seen happen? the s&p 500 and all sorts of appetites. >> ultimately, i think that is what we are talking about here. generationally, the stock market has failed investors. you could back that out. we started at nasdaq 5,000. but going back 25 years, 30 years, i mean almost at 40 years from one point earlier in the spring, loophole research was pointing out that the spread between bond and stock returns was so negligible. it was inflation adjusted terms
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at 1966 levels. >> maybe want to fix the spelling on gauges. >> once an editor, always an editor. >> look at this. the latest issue of time magazine. the tragedy of detroit. something we already know about. here is fortune. gm, do or die. >> you would have thought you would have seen those during the hearings, the bailout. >> it is in selected theaters out next week. >> jennifer will be thrilled. this is a sign that they will finally turn. >> is this a contrary indicator. we have hit a bottom in detroit? >> that is two and michael moore will be three. >> michael moore will be here on monday as we talk to him about his new documentary. >> going be interesting to say the least. we are down on the day in wall
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street. we will see whether the markets can turn it around. have a great weekend. >> three times coming up next.
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hello. erin is off today and here's what's on the agenda. the deals are back. today's unilever buying sarah lee. who will be next? we will tell you who has got the cash and which companies they might spend it on. and we have legendary deal maker tom hicks. just closed a $582 million deal. he appeared with all the details. and 90% of new jobs come from ent p ent preneuros and they are just not hiring today. let's get to the trading floor.
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bob, you are first up. >> what is interesting here, is we have a modest little rally. we were down 65 points and in the last half hour, we are heading towards break even for the day. there is a slightly difference sense of what is going on. the important thing here? industrial stocks have had a tough week. take a look. today is your defensive names. coca-cola, mcdonalds and proctor and gamble. cyclicals are notably on the downside. the transport in particular, seven, eight, nine% off of the recent highs. that was about two or three weeks ago. the dollar has rallied and commodity based stocks have notably been hit about 6% on all of the major gold stocks.

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